No 'polling crisis' anymore: 2018 polling was the most accurate it has been...
There was a lot of hand-wringing about a “polling crisis” after 2016’s abysmal results, with some pundits worrying that we’d never be able to trust polls again. The polls in 2018, however, performed...
View ArticleHere's how the new Democratic members of the House sort out ideologically
If you have any familiarity with the Harry Potter series, you probably know that one of the first things that happens to you upon arriving at Hogwarts is that the Sorting Hat tells you what house...
View ArticleHere's a new way to visualize how much ground we gained in the House
Unless you’ve been living in a cave for the last six weeks, you know that the Democrats won a pretty smashing victory on Election Day, picking up a net 40 seats in the House of Representatives and...
View ArticleHow did we do? A look back at Daily Kos Elections' 2018 race ratings
Elections are never truly over; pundits start talking about the next one as soon as the last one is in the books, before the lame duck session is even ended, and that’s especially the case this year,...
View ArticleThe Most District: Which district has the most U.S.-born residents?...
Despite being centrally located between a number of major metropolitan areas, eastern Kentucky—the part of the state covered by the sprawling 5th congressional district—is, functionally, a pretty...
View ArticleThe Most District: Which district has the most foreign-born residents?...
South Florida is one of the most diverse places in the United States; Miami and its immediate suburbs, in particular, function just as much as the northernmost part of Latin America as they do the...
View ArticleWho are the most vulnerable House members heading into the 2020 elections?
Democratic House candidates performed surprisingly well in 2018, picking up a net of 40 seats. What’s not so surprising is that the number of flips hit double digits, or even that the Democrats were...
View ArticleDaily Kos Elections Governors Forecast: Four different races are currently tied
Here’s a minor paradox for you: the most exciting and encouraging poll of a governor’s race from the last week made the polling average in that race worse. In fact, it single-handedly affected the...
View ArticleDaily Kos Elections Senate Forecast: Montana looks safer even as Indiana doesn't
The good news from the last week of Senate polling is that Jon Tester, the incumbent Democratic senator from Montana, is looking in pretty good shape as we enter the closing weeks. Instinctively, going...
View ArticleDaily Kos Elections Governors Forecast: Democrats currently on track to pick...
It’s time for a little pep talk: I’ve been noticing some people a little down at the mouth over the Democrats’ poor prospects for taking control of the Senate next week. While, yes, that does suck,...
View ArticleOur 'county benchmarks' will help you follow along with—and make sense...
Suppose you’re settling in for a nice evening of watching election returns, and upon checking the very early results, you find that your preferred candidate is suddenly trailing by double digits,...
View ArticleNo 'polling crisis' anymore: 2018 polling was the most accurate it has been...
There was a lot of hand-wringing about a “polling crisis” after 2016’s abysmal results, with some pundits worrying that we’d never be able to trust polls again. The polls in 2018, however, performed...
View ArticleHere's how the new Democratic members of the House sort out ideologically
If you have any familiarity with the Harry Potter series, you probably know that one of the first things that happens to you upon arriving at Hogwarts is that the Sorting Hat tells you what house...
View ArticleHere's a new way to visualize how much ground we gained in the House
Unless you’ve been living in a cave for the last six weeks, you know that the Democrats won a pretty smashing victory on Election Day, picking up a net 40 seats in the House of Representatives and...
View ArticleHow did we do? A look back at Daily Kos Elections' 2018 race ratings
Elections are never truly over; pundits start talking about the next one as soon as the last one is in the books, before the lame duck session is even ended, and that’s especially the case this year,...
View ArticleThe Most District: Which district has the most U.S.-born residents?...
Despite being centrally located between a number of major metropolitan areas, eastern Kentucky—the part of the state covered by the sprawling 5th congressional district—is, functionally, a pretty...
View ArticleThe Most District: Which district has the most foreign-born residents?...
South Florida is one of the most diverse places in the United States; Miami and its immediate suburbs, in particular, function just as much as the northernmost part of Latin America as they do the...
View ArticleWho are the most vulnerable House members heading into the 2020 elections?
Democratic House candidates performed surprisingly well in 2018, picking up a net of 40 seats. What’s not so surprising is that the number of flips hit double digits, or even that the Democrats were...
View ArticleHouse Democrats' 2018 victories came about in some ways that might surprise you
One of the most common intramural arguments that Democrats seem to have is which voters to reach out to in order to try to win close elections: Do you try to turn out “base voters”—usually meant to...
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