It's the last day of the third quarter; here's where we can move the needle...
Earlier, I wrote an article detailing some hard-headed ways to think about how to spend your contributions on Senate candidates. One way is the “moving the needle left” analysis, which looks at...
View ArticleDaily Kos Elections 2016 forecast: Clinton's odds continue to tick back up
We’ve seen enough polls in the last week to know that Hillary Clinton won a decisive victory in the first debate of the presidential general election. Polls that asked specifically about the debate...
View ArticleDaily Kos Elections 2016 forecast: Hillary Clinton's victory odds now back up...
What a difference a week makes! When we looked at the model on Monday, September 26, (the day of the first presidential debate), Hillary Clinton’s odds of winning were 64 percent. There had been some...
View ArticleDaily Kos Elections 2016 forecast: You know, I'm starting to think Hillary...
Hillary Clinton’s odds of winning the presidential election that’s now less than a month away currently stand at an all-time high of 94 percent, according to the Daily Kos Elections model. That’s...
View ArticleHow ya gonna keep 'em voting Trump (after they've seen Paree)?
A poll released on Thursday from the Public Religion Research Institute showed Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump 47-41 in the presidential race; by itself, that’s not that interesting, since that’s...
View ArticleDaily Kos Elections 2016 forecast: So what about retaking the House?
Remember a few weeks ago when people were all “OH NO DONALD TRUMP IS GOING TO WIN HOW IS THIS HAPPENING TO US AAAAAAGGGGHGH?” No, really, it was literally just a few weeks ago! The peak of that...
View ArticleDaily Kos Elections 2016 forecast: Where should Clinton expand the map?
Hillary Clinton’s odds of winning the presidential race are nearly as high as the Harlem Globetrotters’ odds of winning their next matchup against the Washington Generals: currently 96 percent,...
View ArticleDaily Kos Elections 2016 forecast: These three states will decide control of...
At this point, it’s looking pretty clear that Hillary Clinton is going to be the next president. The Daily Kos Elections model currently gives her a 95 percent chance of winning the election two and a...
View ArticleDaily Kos Elections 2016 forecast: Governors' races galore
You might have noticed there’s been one thing consistently missing from my writeups about the Daily Kos Elections forecast model: gubernatorial races! Or, maybe you haven’t noticed. After all,...
View ArticleDaily Kos Elections 2016 forecast: Steady as she goes
We’re getting to the point where the most interesting thing about the Daily Kos Elections model is the extreme consistency from day to day. For more than two weeks now (since October 10), Hillary...
View ArticleDaily Kos Elections 2016 forecast: No, sorry, no 'tightening' here (at least...
You’ve probably already OD’d on reading about Friday’s cryptic Comey memo, which re-opened the email can of worms (if only to reveal the can was empty), from every legal and messaging angle. I don't...
View ArticleDaily Kos Elections 2016 forecast: Democrats' Senate chances are peaking at...
With less than a week left to go until Election Day, the odds of the Democrats controlling 50 seats or more in the Senate are as high as they’ve been: 72 percent. That’s still far from a sure thing,...
View ArticleDaily Kos Elections 2016 county benchmarks
This is Bill.Bill is on the Internet looking at election results in the early phase of the election.Bill sees Donald Trump leading in key swing states.Bill freaks out and panics!Bill does not know that...
View ArticleDaily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version
It’s Election Day, and that brings the Daily Kos Elections predictive model to a close. We’re going out on a pretty high note! As our chief data guru Drew Linzer wrote on Monday, our final projection...
View ArticleHave you moved away from your home state? It may make a big difference in how...
You may have missed it in the overwhelming swirl of information in the month leading up to the election, but back in mid-October, I wrote a whole article highlighting a minor detail from one poll’s...
View ArticleThe Most District: Which district has the most people born in the same state?...
In the weeks before the election, one of the most interesting (if underreported) poll findings came from Public Religion Research Institute; at the time, it seemed like just a neat bit of trivia, but...
View ArticleThe Most District: Which district has the most people born in a different...
Earlier, in the ongoing Daily Kos Elections “Most District” series, we wrote about the congressional district with the highest rate of people born in the same state as where they now live: New York’s...
View ArticleDNC, DCCC, DSCC: How to decipher the alphabet soup of Democratic Party...
It’s not unusual to see confusion about the roles that various Democratic Party campaign committees play, though it seems to have peaked recently following Democrat James Thompson’s unexpectedly close...
View ArticleRace and education make a bigger difference in who you vote for than ever before
If you’d told me before the 2016 election that the Democratic candidate was going to finally win Orange County, California (the most legendary Republican stronghold of all), as well as Fort Bend...
View ArticleWant to know which House districts are headed in the Democrats' direction?...
Ed Royce, the Republican who represents California’s 39th congressional district in Orange County, may be the most vulnerable member of Congress that you’ve never heard of. And that’s despite holding...
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