The Daily Kos Elections preview of Saturday's Democratic caucuses
Saturday’s caucuses may be the high water mark for this year’s primary season for Bernie Sanders; it’s three caucuses (where he tends to do better than primaries), and three west coast states. In...
View ArticleThe Daily Kos Elections guide to the Wisconsin primary
You’re probably tired of the hyperbole about this or that state in the primary process being “must win!!” But Wisconsin does seem to qualify as “must win” on both sides of the aisle, at least for...
View ArticleThe Daily Kos Elections guide to the New York primary
The New York primary usually doesn’t have much impact on the presidential nomination process, coming late in the cycle most years. This year, though, with both parties’ races going deep into the...
View ArticleThe Daily Kos Elections guide to the Northeast primaries
As we keep getting closer to filling in the entire map, Tuesday night’s primaries cover one of the biggest remaining gaps, in the Northeast. (Granted, some authorities, most prominently the Census...
View ArticleThe Daily Kos Elections guide to the Indiana primary
Several weeks ago, there was a ton of hype about the Indiana primaries. It was looking like Donald Trump’s trajectory was going to leave him just short of 1,237 delegates which would open up the first...
View ArticleLast night's Washington primary is one more big reason to kill the caucuses
You’re probably already familiar with some of the basic arguments for the elimination of caucuses from America’s byzantine presidential primary system:• they exclude people who have to work on weekends...
View ArticleThe Most District: What district has the most 20 to 24-year-olds? Texas's 17th
“Millennial” has become a bit of a pejorative in popular media, often deployed as shorthand for a smug hipster who’s a harbinger of neighborhood-destroying regentrification, a self-absorbed entry-level...
View ArticleThe Most District: What's America's most manufacturing-based congressional...
Indiana’s 2nd Congressional District has seen more than its fair share of economic ups and downs. If you go back to 2009 Census economic data, at the peak of the recession, and zoom in on Elkhart...
View ArticleDaily Kos Elections 2016 presidential forecast: Hillary Clinton's chances...
Last Wednesday Daily Kos Elections debuted its 2016 forecast model, where we assess the likelihood of Hillary Clinton’s odds of retaining the presidency and the Democrats’ odds at flipping the Senate....
View ArticleDaily Kos Elections Senate forecast: Democrats have a 59 percent chance of...
Daily Kos Elections has been gradually rolling out more bells and whistles that go with our model that forecasts the 2016 election. Today, we’re adding some new details about the Senate side of the...
View ArticleDaily Kos Elections 2016 presidential forecast: Let's have some Q&A
The Daily Kos Elections presidential and Senate forecasts have been live for two weeks now, and we’ve gotten lots of questions about how it works and what it all means. I try to address questions in...
View ArticleDaily Kos Elections 2016 presidential forecast: New bells and whistles
We’ve got good news on a couple different fronts at the Daily Kos Elections presidential forecast. One is that Hillary Clinton’s chances have ticked up a bit over the course of the week, from 70...
View ArticleDaily Kos Elections 2016 presidential forecast: Presidential race stable,...
If you were hoping for a nice, politics-free weekend, well, guess again; instead you got two days of constant Sturm und Drang, in increasingly absurd ways. If you’re more interested in the polls than...
View ArticleDaily Kos Elections 2016 forecast: Polling day from hell has little effect on...
Conventional wisdom is that Wednesday was a bad day for Team Blue on the polling front; it started out with a surprising poll for Bloomberg (by Selzer, who are considered the “gold standard” in Iowa...
View ArticleDaily Kos Elections 2016 forecast: What's the matter with Ohio?
If you’ve spent any time perusing maps of different presidential elections, you’ve probably noticed that, historically, the map would often change wildly from one election to the next. Even in recent...
View ArticleDaily Kos Elections 2016 forecast: Who will aggregate the aggregators?
I may overuse the parable about the blind men describing the elephant when talking about polling and pollsters, and why we aggregate … but that’s because it’s a great metaphor for what’s going on....
View ArticleDaily Kos 2016 forecast: What's the matter with Maine?
Many months ago, Donald Trump was making outlandish promises about putting states into play that have gone Democratic for decades, thanks to his unconventional mix of positions. Most notably, he was...
View ArticleDaily Kos Elections 2016 forecast: Now we have a page for every state!
Daily Kos Elections is pleased to roll out an important new feature for our 2016 election forecast model: a page for each state! We’d been displaying day-to-day trendlines for Hillary Clinton’s...
View ArticleDaily Kos Elections 2016 forecast: Senate numbers jump thanks to North Carolina
One question that we get a lot about our forecast model (and that wasn’t answered as part of our model Q&A that we had a few weeks ago) tends to come from people who look at our map first and start...
View ArticleIt's the end of the quarter, so here's a quantitative way to decide which...
If your day-to-day thoughts have gotten swallowed up by the presidential race (and don’t feel bad if that’s true; I’m as big a House-race-nerd as you’ll find on this site and I’ve given the lower...
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