Here’s a minor paradox for you: the most exciting and encouraging poll of a governor’s race from the last week made the polling average in that race worse. In fact, it single-handedly affected the overall bottom line; unlike last week, when the Democrats were leading in the averages in eight Republican-held states, they’re now currently leading in only seven.
Let me explain: South Dakota has the longest one-party gubernatorial winning streak in the nation. The last time they elected a Democrat as governor was in 1974. (The lucky guy was named Dick Kneip, if you’re ever looking to wow people with your trivia knowledge.) Until the last month or so, it was widely assumed that this year would be no different, and Republican Rep. Kristi Noem’s big challenge was winning the primary. Since then, though, her Democratic opponent — state Sen. Billie Sutton, a one-time rodeo star in a state where that sport is loved — issued an internal poll in late September showing him leading the race 45-42, one that was never rebutted by Noem. No public polls confirmed that, but rumors started abounding that Noem had been caught napping.
That Sutton internal poll (and an earlier one that had him narrowly losing) were the only things in our average, and that gave Sutton the lead there … but, as you know, internal polls made public are not necessarily trustworthy on their own; whether they’re intended for the media or for donors, the purpose of their purpose is narrative-setting and only the ones showing the candidate’s best foot forward get released. So it was extremely good news when on Wednesday, Mason-Dixon, on behalf of local TV affiliate KELO, released a poll showing a 45-45 tie between Sutton and Noem. It confirmed that Sutton wasn’t blowing smoke with his internal poll, and that this is a real race in one of the reddest of the states.
The downside of that release, though, is that now our South Dakota average sees the race as tied, so — on paper, at least — that made things worse. If you look at the race qualitatively, though, and not just as a poll-averaging robot, the new poll made things better; we can feel more confident that Sutton’s in a good position to actually win here.