Daily Kos Elections Senate Forecast: New polling from Georgia gives good news in both races

In the last week, we’ve gotten some peachy results from polling of the Peach State: not only is the presidential race there a dead heat — which could lead to Georgia’s first appearance in the blue column since 1992  — but there are two potential flips brewing in both of the state’s Senate races. Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff has narrowly pulled ahead of incumbent David Perdue in our averages, in what could be the Democrats’ sixth pickup. Meanwhile, Democratic candidate Raphael Warnock is now in pole position for surviving the all-party rumble in the simultaneous special election.

If you’re wondering why the heck Georgia is having two Senate races at the same time, here’s the short version. Republican incumbent David Perdue was first elected in 2014, defeating Michelle Nunn in a race for an open seat previously held by Republican Saxby Chambliss; he’s facing his first re-election battle, this time against Democratic candidate Jon Ossoff, with whom you’re no doubt familiar from his narrow loss in the epic and expensive special election in Georgia’s 6th congressional district.

Meanwhile, Republican incumbent Kelly Loeffler is also facing voters for the first time, after she was appointed by Governor Brian Kemp to replace longtime Republican Senator Johnny Isakson, who resigned partway through his term for health reasons. Under Georgia state law, a special election starts with a primary where candidates of all parties compete with each other on one ballot, and if no candidate wins 50% of the votes, the top 2 finishers, regardless of party, advance to a runoff in early January.

This did not turn into a coronation for Loeffler; Republican Rep. Doug Collins, who many people expected to be appointed to the vacancy, decided to run anyway, giving up his safe House seat to do so. Three Democrats ran for the race — pastor Raphael Warnock, who became the party establishment’s preferred candidate, businessman Matt Lieberman (best known for being the son of former Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, initially of the Democratic Party and then of the “Connecticut for Lieberman” Party), and former U.S. Attorney Ed Tarver. While this large number of candidates pre-empted the possibility of anyone hitting 50%, it also created the specter of a problem that has already bedeviled Democrats in top 2 primaries in California and Washington, where three or more Democrats and two Republicans run for something, and the Democrats box each other out, leaving an all-Republican finale.

But wait, that’s not all you’ll get! Under Georgia’s unique laws, the regularly scheduled Georgia Senate general election could also turn into an early January runoff if neither Ossoff nor Perdue breaks 50%, and that’s at least a possibility with Libertarian Shane Hazel also on the ballot. So, amazingly, we could see both Georgia races go into overtime, potentially with Senate control in the balance. (I’d point out, though, that other Democratic challengers already lead by larger amounts in enough races to flip control of the Senate regardless of what happens in Georgia.)

Until this most recent week, polling averages showed a) Ossoff narrowly trailing Perdue in the ‘normal’ race, and b) the three Democrats indeed boxing each other out in the special election, leaving Loeffler and Collins to face each other in a runoff. However, in the last week, we saw two polls, one from Civiqs and one from Quinnipiac, giving Ossoff a small lead, and that pushed him to a paper-thin lead in our averages.

Meanwhile, in the other race, Lieberman may have done a fine job of setting himself on fire and thus letting Warnock move into a clear lead. (Lieberman put out a widely derided series of tweets explaining why he wasn’t splitting the vote, which seemed to indicate he didn’t understand the rules of the race he was running in, and then attacked Barack Obama after Obama endorsed Warnock.) One week ago, our standings had Loeffler at 25, Collins at 20, Warnock at 19, and Lieberman at 13.

With those new polls figured into our averages, we’re currently at Warnock 29, Loeffler 22, Collins 21, and Lieberman 9. Warnock’s gain is noticeably bigger than Lieberman’s drop, so some of that isn’t Lieberman’s undoing, but rather previously undecided voters getting off the fence as Warnock finally started advertising widely. That result leaves it unclear whether Warnock would face Loeffler or Collins. While most pollsters haven’t started polling hypothetical runoff matchups yet, Civiqs has, and luckily they find Warnock winning both of them.

He matches up better against Loeffler, whom he beats 49-39, than against Collins, whom he beats 49-44. Either way, that could eventually turn into the Democrats’ seventh pickup (after Arizona, Colorado, Arizona, Maine, Iowa, and the regular Georgia race), without even getting into the other races where the Democratic candidates are hanging out just below the red line. Of course, that would turn into a net of six, factoring in the likely loss in Alabama.

Speaking of which, here’s today’s “totem pole”:

Things look stable in the big four pickups (Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina), as well as in Iowa, which crossed over the red line last week and remains in the same tenuous position despite the addition of a possibly wacky poll from RABA Research putting Theresa Greenfield up by 12. (Several other new polls showing a much closer race limited the impact of that poll, keeping the average at +1.) 

The one Democratic incumbent who’s worth a note of concern is Gary Peters in Michigan, where the polling average is showing a closer race than previous weeks. That’s partly due, though, to Republican pollster Trafalgar flooding the zone here with two polls either showing the race tied or with Peters up by 1, in the last two weeks. Several late-breaking polls that aren’t in our averages yet, however, show Peters leading by the more typical mid- to high-single digits, so that number should drift back up in coming days.

Finally, there’s Kansas, where for a brief couple of days, Democratic challenger Barbara Bollier actually held the lead in our averages, thanks to an internal poll that had her in the lead. However, a Civiqs poll later in the week gave her Republican opponent, Roger Marshall, a seven-point lead, and that balanced out to a Marshall lead of 3 in our averages. It’s worth noting, though, that, in this open seat being vacated by Pat Roberts, Bollier is still holding her own against the more establishment-flavored Marshall, which is already a pleasant surprise. (Her path to victory was supposed to be only if the Republicans nominated the hard-right Kris Kobach, best known for his failure in the 2018 gubernatorial race.)